A Methodological Framework for Strategic Electricity Generation Planning in India: Assessing Resource Adequacy through Probability Risk Metrics

Das, Sherin S and Majumdar, Rudrodip and Krishnan, AV and Srikanth, R (2024) A Methodological Framework for Strategic Electricity Generation Planning in India: Assessing Resource Adequacy through Probability Risk Metrics. In: 3rd International Conference on Renewable Power (ICRP), March 28-29, 2024, MAIT, Delhi.

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Abstract:	A country's electricity mix plays a crucial role in shaping its economic and industrial growth. A diversified fuel mix can reduce emissions while ensuring energy supply security, thus enhancing the potential for climate-compatible growth. A decarbonized electricity mix is essential for mitigating the effects of climate change and catering to the core spirit of sustainable development goals (SDGs) as highlighted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). As of now, the low-carbon electricity mix in India is composed of intermittent energy resources, like Solar, Wind, and Hydropower generation. Although variable renewable energy (VRE) sources lead to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, random temporal fluctuations in their availability perturb the stability of the power systems. This necessitates strategic planning, especially on the generation side such that future electricity demand is always met. This study discusses a methodological framework in conjunction with the existing probability-based risk metrics for assessing the resource adequacy of the electricity generation mix considering the generation capacities of different sources, their average availability levels, and the possible outages that these sources may suffer from. The paper illustrates Monte Carlo simulations with an assumed electricity mix in conjunction with relevant parameters to demonstrate the resource adequacy assessment of an electricity generation mix. The simulations show that the available capacity decreases with an increasing number of discrete risk events, which limits the capability of the power system to meet the demand. For a 2-day test simulation (considering a loss of load expectation value of 2 events-days), the loss of load event is found to be 4 events, and expected unreserved energy is estimated as 1400 MWh over the predefined, representative two-day period
Item Type:	Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Keywords:	Resource adequacy, Electricity generation, Probability risk metrics, Low-carbon electricity mix
Subjects:	School of Natural and Engineering Sciences > Energy and Environment
Divisions:	Schools > Natural Sciences and Engineering
Date Deposited:	24 May 2024 09:19
Last Modified:	18 Jun 2024 04:05
Official URL:	https://mait.ac.in/index.php/3rd-international-con...
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URI:	http://eprints.nias.res.in/id/eprint/2721

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