Singer, Clifford and Milligan, Timothy and Gopi Rethinaraj, T.S.
(2014)
How China’s Options Will Determine GlobalWarming.
challenges, 5 (1).
pp. 1-25.
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| Abstract: |
Carbon dioxide emissions, global average temperature, atmospheric CO2
concentrations, and surface ocean mixed layer acidity are extrapolated using analyses
calibrated against extensive time series data for nine global regions. Extrapolation of
historical trends without policy-driven limitations has China responsible for about half of
global CO2 emissions by the middle of the twenty-first century. Results are presented
for three possible actions taken by China to limit global average temperature increase to
levels it considers to be to its advantage: (1) Help develop low-carbon energy technology
broadly competitive with unbridled carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels; (2) Entice
other countries to join in limiting use of what would otherwise be economically competitive
fossil fuels; (3) Apply geo-engineering techniques such as stratospheric sulfur injection
to limit global average temperature increase, without a major global reduction in carbon
emissions. Taking into account China’s expected influence and approach to limiting the
impact of anthropogenic climate change allows for a narrower range of possible outcomes
than for a set of scenarios that are not constrained by analysis of likely policy-driven
limitations. While China could hold back on implementing geoengineering given a
remarkable amount of international cooperation on limiting fossil carbon burning, an
outcome where geoengineering is used to delay the perceived need to limit the atmospheric
CO2 concentration may be difficult to avoid. |
| Item Type: |
Journal Paper
|
| Additional Information: |
Copyright belongs to Publisher |
| Keywords: |
China; carbon emissions; geo-engineering |
| Subjects: |
School of Natural and Engineering Sciences > Others |
| Divisions: |
Schools > Natural Sciences and Engineering |
| Date Deposited: |
02 Apr 2015 06:34 |
| Last Modified: |
08 May 2015 10:28 |
| Official URL: |
http://www.mdpi.com/2078-1547/5/1 |
| Related URLs: |
|
| Funders: |
UNSPECIFIED |
| Projects: |
UNSPECIFIED |
| DOI: |
10.3390/challe5010001 |
| URI: |
http://eprints.nias.res.in/id/eprint/675 |
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